Industry Predictions for 2023
In a very personal account, Lic. Mónica Peralta (Forensic Document Expert) sets out her opinion of what is in store for the ID and Secure Document industry in 2023.
Wartime new risks
If last year was presented as the end of the pandemic at a global level, the Russian military invasion of Ukraine mobilised all nations. International alerts reacted to the massive mobilisation of people fleeing their territory with only what they were wearing.
Like an old postcard from a movie war conflict in the 20th century, we saw how (at the beginning) countries were entered without the usual rigorous controls. Gone were facial recognition solutions, as well as fingerprinting to record those movements.
There is no doubt that the situation called for these actions.
According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), ‘as of 11 October, nearly 7.7 million refugees from Ukraine were recorded across Europe since 24 February 2022’ 1.
In this context, my predictions for 2023 will focus on three strategic axes:
Borders
One of the global characteristics of 2022 was the human mobilisation at land and sea borders. Insecurity, violent conflicts, unemployment and the effects of climate change have put millions of undocumented people at the centre of a global crisis.
These unfortunate events further deepen the migration emergency.
In recent years, international organised crime has profited from people from Africa, who are thrown into the Mediterranean Sea in precarious boats called ‘pateras’.
However, since the invasion of Ukraine, criminal networks have focused on the trafficking of minor children, many of them orphans, others separated from their families.
According to UNICEF ‘from 24 February to 17March, more than 500 unaccompanied children crossed the border between Ukraine and Romania. However, the actual number of separated children who have fled Ukraine to neighbouring countries is likely to be much higher. Separated children are especially vulnerable to trafficking and exploitation’ 2.
If, as seems likely, the war conflict continues during 2023, these illegal activities will increase even more. Therefore, the identification of minors must be rigorously intensified at border crossings.
Almost 10,000 km from Europe, in Latin America the social situation is similar; the region suffers from problems of insecurity, inequality, and adverse climatic disasters caused by droughts, floods, and earthquakes, among others. These factors give rise to massive caravans moving south to the US border.
The link that was generated between migration and climate change was notable during 2022.
It will then be necessary to project the data of populations in risk situations to mitigate these forced mobilisations.
It will also be essential to carry out coordinated activities in conjunction with international control agencies, improve understanding agreements by strengthening them, to exchange information in real time and combat the scourge of these crimes operated by criminal networks taking advantage of the painful circumstances.
We must consider that, in these illegal activities of organised crime, identity documents precede these crimes, which is why they play a very important role when establishing the real identity of their holders.
Documents
During 2022, the numerous innovations applied to the passport holder’s data page could be appreciated, starting with the extreme protection of photography to prevent identity substitution.
When examining the biographical data page of some passports made of polycarbonate, we verified that a main photograph is printed in an integrated way as well as additional ones applied with various sophisticated high-resolution techniques (three-dimensional, changing, and multiple images as well as invisible images with hidden information). These security barriers are highly effective in combating a new type of fraud detected in identity and travel documents that generate a digital alteration of faces to circumvent biometric controls.
One of the ways to achieve this is by using graphic programs and by means of the morphing technique: two similar faces are combined to create one that has physiognomic characteristics of the two originals. Although it is a type of fraud that occurs globally, there are solutions in the commercial market from prestigious companies that offer different sophisticated techniques in their products that combine printing systems such as laser (black) and offset (CMY).
It is expected that the graphic security printing industry will increase these techniques in the issuance of their passports, given the guarantee they offer when evaluating a suspicious document.
Economy
The fragile economic situation of airlines, caused by COVID 19 affected airport activity, produced a sharp increase in fares. Many airlines had to lay off pilots, cabin crew, and billing staff because of the health crisis. Activity was affected in the US, Europe, and Asia due to the lack of personnel to meet passenger demand.
But almost three years after COVID 19, what is surprising is that a significant number of employees, particularly security and baggage employees, did not return to their jobs. This situation caused collapses in air traffic; cancellations, delays, violent conflicts with passengers (hurried to do security checks).
One of the measures that some countries resorted to was the elimination of entry and exit stamps in passports. The Argentine Republic progressively began to eliminate the physical entry and exit stamping of Argentine nationals, residents and tourists who enter and/or leave the country.
In the technological aspect of information and communications, the high levels of inflation that we are seeing throughout the world are combined with broadband problems, the release of spectrum for 4 and 5G and the growth of cloud services.
Even the Big Tech giants – Google, Apple, and Microsoft, among others – have gone through the worst year in their history given the financial uncertainty. According to Jorge Fernando Negrete of Digital Policy & Law, ‘the investor markets in Latin America and Mexico are skeptical of new digital companies, as well as of the new global conditions of competition and regulation.’ The question that arises then is how to access a digital society if the gap persists in less developed countries?
According to the World Economic Forum, ‘there are a billion people who do not have a legal identification’ 3. Without this vital right it is impossible to access services such as opening a bank account, going to court, applying for a mortgage, or voting.
Even worse, when children are born to mothers who do not have a legal identity, then how can they register their children when they are born?
This obstacle undoubtedly affects people’s rights, but how do you combat the economic issue and the right to access an identity, and even more so a digital identity?
2023 will be a complex scenario and, maybe tomorrow, these predictions will be part of the story. Who knows…
1 - https://displacement.iom.int/responses/ukraine-response.
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