My Predictions for 2022

Looking back at my predictions for 2021 (see IDN March 2021), I’m once again drawn to the conclusion that the pandemic is not over yet. On the contrary, at the beginning of 2022, we are going through an evolution of the virus.

Trying to recover normality as we knew it will undoubtedly be a long-term challenge; COVID continues to impact our lives, affecting our fundamental rights, such as our free movement.

We know that the 9/11 terrorist attack transformed the way we identify ourselves. First, it led to the incorporation of biometrics in the electronic passports of passengers, and later, the application of information technologies to analyse the Advance Passenger Information (API) and creating a Passenger Name Registry (PNR).

All these technological innovations took about 20 years to progress. In this sense, the appearance of COVID-19 rapidly accelerated these transformations. It was sought to facilitate the resolution of legal procedures avoiding physical contact between people.

Thus, the strong increase in automation, the development of modern technologies to validate these legal acts and electronic surveillance, assisted by the cognitive processes of artificial intelligence, were some of these changes that are here to stay.

But what does the pandemic continue to show since its inception?

Just as a microscope helps us to verify physical evidence of expert relevance in a documentary examination; the pandemic shows us the obvious differences between nations related to extreme poverty, unemployment, and social inequality caused, in some cases, due to climate change.

Thus, one of the current questions I ask myself is how the transformations will happen despite vaccines (a mandatory requirement to enter some countries), as well as the restrictions imposed by governments will be managed. My analysis is focused on:

1. Borders

2021 was the year of global vaccination and diagnostic tests, increasing the opening of secure borders in the air, land, and sea. However, the tourism industry; a strategic pillar of the world economy, continued to suffer from the restrictions imposed by governments, added to the suspicion of passengers in the face of the uncertainty of the new variants of the virus.

The numbers that international organisations reported in 2020 were alarming. Although the International Air Transport Organization (IATA) reported a significant boost in air movements in July 2021, the economic recovery was slow.

In this context, uncertainty further undermined people’s anxiety and fear of traveling when the World Health Organization (WHO) warned us that ‘we are facing a tsunami of infections in the world’.

The epidemiological information was confused and not accurate, the spread of fake news also contributed to creating skepticism among people.

In this sense, the strategic decision-making that governments adopted was highly questioned, even more so those that established certain requirements to cross international borders. This is why we need to fight the increasing misinformation about coronavirus.

On the eve of the holiday season, thousands of airlines cancelled their operations around the world, given the increase in cases among many crews with the recent Omicron variant, creating chaos in air terminals.

While there are optimistic people in the medium term who will start traveling freely with full vaccination schedules, and other pessimists in the long term, there are those who are sceptical and redouble their questions about the efficacy of vaccines, such as the famous Serbian tennis player Djokovic, who brought two countries close to a diplomatic conflict.

The spread of new variants will perhaps advance faster than the political measures adopted. In this way, it will be necessary to create a new global social contract between citizens and nations so that actions can be suggested without imposing them; but providing accurate information to comply with citizen obligations.

2. New forms of authentication and their vulnerabilities

During the past two years, the pandemic made visible the importance of electronic validation. In this way, different requests were guaranteed and thus not lose the regularity of the migratory status, for example in the case of foreigners. The boom in electronic transactions also allowed payments without using cash, which brought its own problems with online fraud.

The use of smartphones increased the vulnerability of APPs; added to this, the ignorance of users regarding whether the configuration of their cell phones was automatic, caused downloads without their due consent.

In a similar vein, the risk of using widgets which, while they are a visual attraction and are constantly active, created a vulnerable gateway to personal data.

As for projects in advanced development, it is interesting to mention the one created by the Swedish company DSruptive Subdermal. It is a microchip that works like a COVID passport (the authorities are still waiting to approve it) to be inserted voluntarily, under the skin. Are we closer to the automation of the human being? The short answer to this question is: maybe, who knows?

3. Economic inequality: asymmetric societies

The partial or total closure of borders evidenced the breakdown of relevant sectors of the economy. The emergence of new variants complicated the operation of essential services and the activity of important economic sectors.

To mitigate this crisis, governments issued health passes or passports that functioned as a mandatory permit to circulate. However, their imposition caused socially problematic situations and the emergence of violent protests.

One of the virtual resources that continued to be an instrument to connect people at distance, irrespective of country or time zone, were the video communications and virtual meeting platforms. Undoubtedly these tools brought societies closer, although not all of them had access. In this sense, we must analyse two aspects that led to asymmetric social gaps.

First is the human aspect. The humanitarian crisis currently in force and those that are developing will be the protagonists of this new pandemic season. The lack of opportunities, access to health, economic inequality, the climate crisis, will continue to be factors that will mark forced displacements within their own territories and illegal border crossings.

The magnitude of the refugee problem will create an extreme increase in the mobilisation of people into developed countries, causing a worse crisis than pre-pandemic levels.

Second is the technological aspect. Although developed countries have innumerable means to control documents through 5G licences, the same situation does not arise in developing countries and even less in poor ones, where the limited digital access has made visible a marked technological rift.

Both device costs and data access are the main obstacles to achieving communicational equity. The problem that occurs is how these low-income people will access a system that advances so fast to exclude them. This year is imperative to implement greater social inclusion actions to access innovative digital technology, considering the most vulnerable people.

4. Organised crime

Criminal networks have not remained inactive. To the contrary, in a pandemic situation, these criminal organisations associated with illegal immigration have been attentive to opportunities, generating high profits.

Most of these situations have been documented in numerous operational reports of the prestigious FRONTEX agency, US Department of Homeland Security (HSI), US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and INTERPOL, among others.

The migratory crisis is reflected in increasing human mobilisations, forcing states to make strategic decisions to avoid human trafficking and smuggling.

Throughout 2021, we read about the exorbitant payment that Central American immigrants had to pay to these networks to get to the US by land. The victims are mostly adults, but last year set a sad record for unaccompanied minors. Also, the different Mediterranean routes evidenced a significant movement to EU during last year.

The new year started a few weeks ago. We still face a deadly epidemic. The correct behaviour is a moral obligation. Maybe tomorrow, these predictions will be part of the story. In the meantime, the third season of COVID is on the air now, but no end date has been announced yet…

The opinions expressed in this article are those of Lic. Mónica Peralta, who sits on the Advisory Committee for ID & Secure Document News™.